Introducing the Survey 160 Tracking Poll

By Kevin Collins and Stephanie Pedron

Today we are releasing the first set of results from a pilot of a new project of Survey 160: a recurring tracking poll. These polls will track presidential approval and generic house ballot, among other topics to be discussed in upcoming releases. These surveys will also serve as a test-bench for our ongoing methodological research program. 

In a mixed mode live text, text-to-web, and online panel survey to registered voters nationwide, fielded in late August (see full methodological details at the bottom of this blog post), we find that Donald Trump’s approval is 11 points underwater, with just 43% of respondents approving and 54% of respondents disapproving. That estimate is similar to, if slightly more negative than, the polling average produced by the New York Times (43% approve, 52% disapprove) and approximately the same as the average produced by G. Elliot Morris’s Strength in Numbers (42.3 approve to 53.1% disapprove) at the end of the field period.

Beyond these toplines, there is a notable preference intensity gap. We find that 47% of respondents disapprove strongly while just 7% disapprove somewhat, while 29% approve strongly and 14% approve somewhat. Similarly, while we see that 92% of Democrats disapprove of Trump’s performance, and 92% of Republicans approve of his performance, just 68% of Republicans approve strongly compared to 83% of Democrats who disapprove strongly. Among independents, 66% disapprove while 30% approve. Full question wording and crosstabs are available here.

We find that Democrats have a 7 point lead in the generic ballot for US House, with 46% of voters favoring Democratic candidates, 39% favoring Republicans, and 15% unsure. This is a somewhat larger gap than the 3 point lead in the Strength in Numbers average at the end of the field period.

Better Inferences with Experiments

We believe that survey experiments – while common in private message testing – are under utilized in public polling, and to that end we intend to conduct experiments regularly as part of this new initiative. For our first poll, we focused on a topic near to our hearts: the reliability of data collected by the federal statistical system. 

Specifically, we were interested in how news about the firing of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics affected the public’s trust in federal data. We asked people “In general, how trustworthy do you think economic statistics and other data coming from the Federal Government will be over the next year?” This question was either preceded or followed by this question:

“President Donald Trump recently fired the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after recent employment survey estimates from the Bureau showed fewer jobs than anticipated and estimates for previous months were revised downward.

Thinking of this firing specifically, do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s actions?”

How did prompting people with information about this firing action affect trustworthiness? We can compare responses of people who were given this BLS question after the story (the control) to those given this question just before they were asked about trustworthiness (the treatment). Here’s what we see: 

To test for significance we dichotomized this scale to “Untrustworthy”, treating “Not at all” and “Not Very” trustworthy as a single column. Regression analysis shows that the group asked about this question after reading the BLS story is about 5 percentage points more likely to give an “untrustworthy” answer, although this difference is not statistically significant. Notably, though, this treatment effect is concentrated among people who do not identify with either party. Among the independents and other party identifiers, asking about the BLS firing story first increased their probability of rating federal data as either not very trustworthy or not at all trustworthy by 18 percentage points (statistically significant at p<0.05).

Interestingly we see also some heterogeneity in treatment effect by mode, with text modes showing greater effect on perceived untrustworthiness (~7 percentage points, marginally statistically significant at p<0.1), but among the panel sample the treatment was associated with a ~ 1 pp negative effect, albeit one that is not statistically significant. Online panelists are the most common source for respondents for message testing survey experiments in the political analytics industry, so even such a tentative finding of mode effects with effects in opposite directions is a cause for concern. 

We will be continuing to investigate heterogeneity in survey experiment treatment effects by sample source in future work, and encourage others to do so as well. Similarly, if there are questions you are interested in answering with survey experiments, please reach out at info@survey160.com.

Crosstabs

	Topline	Party ID					Race					Gender			Education		Age Group				Region				2024 Vote Choice
	Overall	Democrat	Republican	Independent	Other Party	Refused	White	Black	Hispanic	AAPI	Other Race	Man	Woman	Some other way	College	Non-college	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	Northeast	Midwest	South	West	Harris	Trump	Other	Didn't Vote
Do you think things in The United States are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? (Note: Respondents saw only one direction question)
Right direction	20	3	42	15	13	1	23	14	12	8	16	24	16	11	19	20	13	11	26	23	18	17	25	15	2	41	7	17
Wrong direction	28	45	8	34	39	30	27	33	28	26	32	24	32	31	30	27	35	33	25	25	27	32	26	29	48	8	38	29
Not sure	6	4	3	5	1	40	4	8	12	6	5	4	7	10	3	7	7	9	3	4	3	5	8	4	3	4	2	8
Do you think things in your community are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? (Note: Respondents saw only one direction question)
Right direction	17	9	29	11	12	13	18	11	16	18	14	19	14	24	17	16	15	20	15	16	22	18	15	14	10	27	10	15
Wrong direction	20	27	13	23	26	4	19	25	22	17	21	20	20	17	19	20	25	18	21	19	19	18	16	29	28	15	40	18
Not sure	10	12	6	13	10	12	9	8	10	25	13	8	11	7	11	9	4	10	9	13	12	10	10	9	10	6	3	13
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
Strongly approve	29	1	68	16	12	15	35	12	20	17	25	34	25	12	25	32	17	18	38	35	30	25	32	27	1	67	3	22
Somewhat approve	14	4	24	14	11	19	14	13	15	19	9	15	13	28	13	15	11	17	14	12	19	15	13	12	2	25	9	15
Somewhat disapprove	7	9	2	10	4	16	4	16	14	20	6	7	7	5	6	8	11	9	5	5	7	10	6	5	7	3	11	10
Strongly disapprove	47	83	5	56	72	43	46	56	48	23	55	42	52	46	53	43	58	53	39	46	39	48	46	54	89	4	76	48
Not sure	3	3	1	4	1	6	1	4	3	22	5	2	3	9	3	3	3	3	3	1	5	2	3	2	1	1	2	5
Total approve	43	5	92	30	22	34	50	25	35	36	34	50	38	40	38	47	28	35	53	48	49	40	45	39	3	92	12	37
Total disapprove	54	92	7	66	76	60	49	71	61	42	61	49	58	51	59	51	69	62	44	51	46	58	52	60	95	7	86	58
If the 2026 election for US Congress were held today, would you support the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate on the ballot?
Democratic Candidate	46	93	1	50	49	37	43	64	42	53	45	43	49	57	51	42	52	52	39	46	40	48	43	54	89	2	48	48
Republican Candidate	39	3	93	20	24	5	46	19	33	28	29	46	34	17	36	41	28	30	49	42	44	37	40	36	3	90	26	28
Not sure	15	4	6	30	28	58	11	16	25	18	26	12	17	25	12	16	20	19	12	12	16	15	17	10	8	9	26	25
President Donald Trump recently fired the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after recent employment survey estimates from the Bureau showed fewer jobs than anticipated and estimates for previous months were revised downward. Thinking of this firing specifically, do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s actions?
Strongly approve	21	2	50	12	8	1	25	14	14	9	20	26	18	10	18	23	16	11	29	24	19	20	25	18	2	52	1	13
Somewhat approve	14	3	25	14	4	10	15	14	12	15	5	16	11	7	12	15	5	14	16	14	19	12	13	12	2	23	2	15
Somewhat disapprove	10	14	9	10	5	8	8	12	20	26	7	8	12	6	10	11	13	14	10	6	8	11	10	11	9	8	17	13
Strongly disapprove	46	77	5	56	70	49	45	52	41	29	54	44	47	63	53	41	55	50	38	46	41	48	44	50	85	6	74	46
Don't know	9	4	11	8	12	31	8	7	14	22	13	6	12	15	8	10	11	10	8	9	12	8	8	9	2	12	6	12
In general, how trustworthy do you think economic statistics and other data coming from the Federal Government will be over the next year?
Very trustworthy	12	4	25	9	3	3	14	12	12	1	7	15	10	8	11	13	7	8	14	16	11	9	13	15	4	26	NA	8
Somewhat trustworthy	27	13	49	19	16	8	29	20	18	44	25	31	23	19	28	26	22	26	30	26	34	28	26	22	9	46	39	25
Not very trustworthy	20	26	13	20	29	14	18	24	20	38	22	19	20	33	18	21	27	22	19	16	19	23	20	18	27	12	16	20
Not at all trustworthy	31	47	6	42	39	40	30	36	31	13	31	28	33	27	37	27	34	33	28	30	23	32	31	35	51	6	39	34
Don't know	10	10	7	9	13	36	9	8	19	4	15	6	14	13	6	13	10	12	8	11	13	8	10	10	8	10	6	12
What is your gender?
Man	46	38	51	52	53	15	45	56	46	16	48	100	NA	NA	50	43	43	50	47	41	51	40	47	46	42	49	36	46
Woman	53	61	48	47	43	84	54	42	54	77	47	NA	100	NA	49	56	55	48	52	58	48	60	52	54	56	51	60	53
Non-binary	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6	0	NA	NA	30	0	0	1	1	NA	NA	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0
Prefer to self-describe	0	NA	0	NA	0	NA	0	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	3	NA	0	NA	NA	0	NA	NA	0	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	0
Prefer not to say	1	1	0	1	3	0	0	1	0	0	4	NA	NA	68	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	3	1
Which of the following best describes your race and ethnic background?
African-American or Black	12	20	5	12	14	5	NA	100	NA	NA	NA	14	9	16	8	14	17	10	12	10	10	9	16	10	14	4	6	16
Asian-American, South-Asian, or Pacific Islander	3	4	2	3	0	0	NA	NA	NA	100	NA	1	4	16	4	2	2	5	2	1	2	1	3	4	2	0	NA	4
Hispanic or Latino	14	15	11	10	7	58	NA	NA	100	NA	NA	14	14	3	8	18	16	25	9	8	13	10	12	22	10	10	9	20
Native American	1	1	1	1	0	0	NA	NA	NA	NA	17	1	1	4	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	NA	2
White or Caucasian	66	56	80	66	60	30	100	NA	NA	NA	NA	64	67	38	72	61	56	55	70	76	68	76	64	56	67	80	70	53
More than one of the above	4	4	1	4	15	5	NA	NA	NA	NA	61	4	4	16	5	3	6	4	4	3	4	2	4	5	5	3	6	4
Other	1	0	1	3	4	2	NA	NA	NA	NA	22	2	1	7	2	1	1	0	2	2	1	1	1	2	1	2	9	1
What is the last year of education or degree you’ve finished?
1st through 11th grade	1	1	1	2	0	NA	1	0	2	NA	2	1	1	NA	NA	2	2	2	1	1	0	0	1	3	0	2	NA	2
High School degree or GED	19	18	21	19	5	16	17	26	26	20	6	18	19	6	NA	30	42	19	13	16	27	25	11	18	14	15	11	25
Technical or vocational school	7	2	9	6	6	22	6	8	7	2	6	5	8	5	NA	11	6	2	7	10	3	4	10	6	2	12	1	6
Some college but no degree	21	20	21	19	32	26	20	27	25	13	25	22	21	34	NA	35	18	22	21	23	15	18	24	26	19	21	30	23
Associate’s (2 year) degree	14	15	13	12	12	26	13	14	19	4	10	12	15	4	NA	22	7	15	14	16	12	17	12	15	15	12	8	14
Bachelor’s (4 year) degree	21	24	20	21	30	8	23	11	18	32	28	22	21	22	55	NA	20	26	24	14	19	20	24	20	27	24	41	15
Graduate or professional degree	17	19	15	22	15	3	20	14	4	29	22	20	14	29	45	NA	5	15	21	20	24	16	18	12	23	14	9	16
In the 2024 election for US President, for whom did you vote?
Kamala Harris	42	85	3	46	57	15	43	55	33	32	40	39	44	57	53	36	49	44	37	44	38	40	41	49	100	NA	NA	33
Donald Trump	41	3	90	29	20	14	48	23	28	20	33	47	36	16	37	43	28	31	51	44	47	39	42	36	NA	100	NA	27
Chase Oliver	0	0	0	1	1	NA	1	NA	NA	NA	0	1	0	2	1	0	NA	1	1	0	0	2	0	NA	NA	NA	36	0
Jill Stein	0	NA	NA	1	0	NA	0	NA	1	NA	NA	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	NA	0	NA	1	NA	NA	4	1
Some other candidate	1	1	0	1	3	NA	1	1	1	NA	2	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	NA	NA	61	0
Did not vote for President	13	9	5	20	16	71	6	18	33	42	21	10	16	18	7	17	11	23	10	10	12	16	14	10	NA	NA	NA	34
Was not eligible to vote for President	2	2	2	2	2	NA	1	3	3	7	4	2	2	3	1	3	10	1	1	0	1	2	2	2	NA	NA	NA	5
And today, when it comes to politics, do you think of yourself as more of a...
Democrat	31	100	NA	NA	NA	NA	26	52	34	45	28	26	35	36	34	29	38	35	27	28	30	30	31	33	62	1	31	31
Independent	24	NA	NA	100	NA	NA	24	25	17	30	33	27	21	24	26	22	28	20	22	28	23	21	24	28	25	17	35	28
Republican	35	NA	100	NA	NA	NA	42	14	26	24	17	39	32	15	31	37	20	28	43	37	36	36	36	30	3	78	19	26
Something else	6	NA	NA	NA	100	NA	5	7	3	0	17	6	5	23	6	5	10	9	4	2	7	6	5	6	8	3	15	5
Unsure	5	NA	NA	NA	NA	100	2	2	20	0	5	2	7	2	1	7	3	8	3	5	4	6	4	4	2	2	NA	9
Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or a not very strong Democrat?
Not very strong Democrat	8	27	NA	NA	NA	NA	6	14	11	15	9	8	8	16	10	7	13	12	5	7	8	13	8	6	14	0	4	10
Strong Democrat	23	73	NA	NA	NA	NA	20	39	23	30	19	18	27	20	24	22	26	23	22	21	22	18	23	27	48	1	27	20
Would you call yourself a strong Republican or a not very strong Republican?
Not very strong Republican	9	NA	25	NA	NA	NA	8	8	14	10	4	11	7	5	8	9	9	12	9	5	10	8	8	10	2	17	12	8
Strong Republican	26	NA	75	NA	NA	NA	34	6	12	14	13	28	25	10	23	28	11	16	34	32	26	28	28	20	1	61	6	18
Do you generally think of yourself as closer to...
Neither	9	NA	NA	38	NA	NA	6	19	8	18	17	12	7	11	8	9	10	9	7	10	8	7	9	12	6	4	27	14
The Democratic Party	9	NA	NA	37	NA	NA	11	4	4	3	8	8	9	7	11	7	16	7	7	9	6	9	9	9	18	1	3	8
The Republican Party	5	NA	NA	22	NA	NA	6	2	3	2	8	7	4	7	6	5	2	3	7	7	8	4	4	6	1	11	3	4
Unsure	1	NA	NA	4	NA	NA	1	NA	2	7	0	1	1	NA	1	1	NA	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	2	2
How often do you pay attention to what's going on in government and politics? All the time, most of the time, about half the time, once in a while, or never
All the time	37	39	39	36	49	7	42	25	26	22	40	42	32	50	45	32	32	29	40	44	34	40	40	32	46	38	28	30
Most of the time	38	37	40	40	32	32	39	36	42	27	35	39	38	28	42	36	45	45	33	35	39	37	37	42	38	44	50	34
About half the time	14	14	14	15	11	21	13	25	15	18	10	12	16	20	9	18	17	15	19	7	15	14	12	18	10	12	18	19
Once in a while	7	5	7	8	7	20	5	14	8	6	12	5	9	1	3	9	5	7	6	9	10	6	7	5	4	5	NA	11
Never	3	5	1	2	0	20	1	NA	10	27	3	1	5	NA	1	4	1	4	2	4	1	4	4	3	1	1	4	6
In the past 12 months, how often did you discuss political, societal, or local issues with friends or family?
Basically every day	28	32	30	20	42	10	32	24	17	10	22	27	29	26	34	24	24	19	34	32	23	28	31	27	34	27	20	24
A few times a week	36	35	34	44	33	11	37	27	35	29	42	40	31	48	40	33	36	44	34	29	34	34	33	42	41	37	52	29
A few times a month	18	18	18	18	13	24	18	20	19	25	21	18	19	10	16	20	25	19	16	18	24	17	20	13	15	18	19	21
Once a month	4	2	5	4	0	4	3	6	3	6	2	4	2	10	4	3	6	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	3	3	NA	4
Less than once a month	7	6	7	8	6	13	5	16	10	4	2	7	8	4	4	10	6	10	4	9	10	10	4	8	4	8	5	9
Not at all	7	6	6	6	6	37	5	7	16	27	10	3	11	1	2	10	3	6	9	9	6	8	8	6	3	6	4	12
During the past 12 months, have you posted a message or comment online about a political issue or campaign, or have you not done this in the past 12 months?
Have posted a message online about a political issue in past 12 months	38	44	35	37	40	15	41	31	33	13	39	39	36	48	41	36	52	32	39	35	35	35	42	35	47	36	37	31
Have not done this in the past 12 months	56	50	59	58	53	65	54	65	54	70	55	56	56	40	56	56	46	61	53	60	62	57	51	59	48	59	53	60
Not sure	6	6	6	5	7	20	5	5	12	17	6	5	8	13	4	8	2	8	8	6	3	8	8	6	4	5	10	9
How important is politics to your personal identity?
Extremely important	14	19	16	6	22	5	14	19	14	10	14	13	16	18	16	14	22	10	18	12	9	17	17	13	17	14	13	13
Very important	23	31	22	18	25	9	25	14	23	14	19	21	25	32	26	21	20	25	18	29	21	27	24	20	28	21	28	20
Somewhat important	29	28	30	34	24	13	32	31	21	16	19	31	27	24	29	29	30	30	27	29	36	26	24	34	33	31	7	25
Not too important	18	12	19	24	11	27	16	16	23	29	25	20	17	4	16	19	18	19	20	14	18	17	18	19	11	19	22	22
Not at all important	14	9	13	17	18	41	12	19	17	18	21	15	13	17	11	16	10	14	16	15	16	11	15	14	10	14	30	18
Not sure	1	2	0	2	2	5	1	0	2	14	2	1	2	5	2	1	NA	3	1	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	NA	3
Age from voter file.
18-29	12	15	7	14	21	8	10	17	14	7	18	11	12	22	8	14	12	NA	NA	NA	14	10	12	11	13	8	2	15
30-44	27	31	22	23	44	44	23	24	49	51	23	30	25	43	29	26	NA	27	NA	NA	25	32	22	35	30	19	27	32
45-64	33	29	41	31	25	20	35	35	21	29	35	34	32	26	38	29	NA	NA	33	NA	36	29	39	24	27	37	53	33
65+	28	25	30	32	10	29	32	24	16	13	24	25	31	10	25	30	NA	NA	NA	28	25	29	28	29	30	36	18	20
Region from voter file.
Northeast	18	17	18	17	21	17	19	15	17	13	20	20	16	20	20	17	21	16	20	16	18	NA	NA	NA	18	21	15	16
Midwest	22	22	23	20	23	29	25	18	16	8	16	19	25	18	21	23	20	26	19	23	NA	22	NA	NA	19	20	36	26
South	38	38	39	38	35	37	37	50	33	41	36	39	37	46	41	36	38	30	45	38	NA	NA	38	NA	36	39	22	40
West	22	23	19	26	22	17	19	18	34	37	29	22	22	15	18	24	21	28	16	23	NA	NA	NA	22	27	20	27	19

Methodological Statement

Sampling 

We sampled potential respondents from the L2 voter file of registered voters. The population was divided into 67 non-overlapping strata based on race, age, participation in the 2024 general and primary elections, partisan support model score, and educational attainment model category. This stratification schema was used to define a target number of completes for each stratum, sampled inversely proportional to expected response rates based on past surveys, oversampling to allow for variation from these expected response rates. After defining stratification and targets, we then limited the sample to records with cell-phones.

We supplemented this text-to-web survey with a sample of Cint panelists who had been matched to the voter file, to mitigate concerns over coverage of a cell-only sample and other mode-specific non-response biases. We then reconstructed which sampling strata these Cint panelists belonged to based on voter file data. 

Fielding

The text-to-web and live interviewer surveys were fielded from Tuesday August 26 through Monday September 1, 2025. The first day of fielding was a “soft launch” limiting the number of records. We then activated the DRASS sampling system to adjust for relative non-response across sampling strata. We also set quotas matching target numbers for the completed responses by strata, such that we did not initiate any new surveys to respondents from strata where the quotas had been met, but did not terminate respondents after their respective stratum-level quota had been met either. We re-contacted people who had not responded to the initial outreach, limiting this recontact to strata where the quota had not been met, then left the survey open on a final day of fielding without any additional contacts.

Some text-to-web respondents were told of a $100 Amazon gift card conditional lottery incentive after initially agreeing to participate in the survey, though all respondents were offered this incentive after completing the survey. We checked to make sure there were no duplicate records in the text sample, and discarded 19 records with duplicate voter records. Post-deduplication, we had a total of 536 completed interviews via text-to-web and 508 completed interviews via live interviewer surveys. 

The panel-to-web surveys were from a list of registered voter targets from Cint, who has matched their panelists to the L2 voter file, limiting the respondents to those who were affirmatively matched. These panelists were then interviewed from Tuesday August 26 through Saturday August 30, with quotas in place matching the sample stratification targets. These responses were then matched back to the L2 file, appending the demographic necessary to reconstruct their sampling strata. We completed 393 interviews via panel-to-web fielding, for a combined mixed-mode sample of 1,437 interviews. 

Weighting

Pooling the text-to-web and live interviewer SMS surveys, we first created base weights by rake weighting these samples back to stratification benchmarks using fields associated with the respondents in the voter file. We then use these weights to estimate the frequency of survey taking, creating bins. 

Then we rake weight the panel-to-web responses using both the distribution of strata and this binned estimate of survey response frequency to create base weights for the panel-to-web survey. 

Finally, with these base weights as starting values, we pool the data together and rake the combined sample to the strata distribution, survey response frequency, census region, joint distribution of race and educational attainment,  gender using self-reports, party affiliation using self-reports, and 2024 turnout and vote choice, using voter-file data to correct over-reports of turnout. Weighting targets for race and educational attainment, gender, party affiliation, 2024 turnout and vote choice, and census region are derived from the Pew NPORS survey conducted January 2025. Weights were trimmed at 0.1 and 10.

After accounting for the Kish 1+L approximation of the design effect from weighting, the margin of error is 5.8 percentage points. 

Other Disclosures

This survey of registered voters in the United States was paid for by Survey 160 as part of our ongoing methodological research initiatives. All estimates of public opinion have sources of error beyond that which is captured by the margin of error, including non-ignorable (post weighting) non-response error, frame and coverage error, measurement error and processing error. 

Survey Instrument

Q1 Right/Wrong Direction

First, do you think things in the [Randomize: The United States/your community] are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? [Rotate 1-2]

1. Right direction

2. Wrong direction

3. Not sure

4. Refused [VOL]

Q2: Attention Barometer

In a few words, what news story caught your attention this week? 

“News” can be anything you follow, whether local TV, websites, podcasts, or social media, on any topic like sports, entertainment, or politics. We just want to know what caught your attention.

If you can’t think of anything specific, that’s okay, just say so. Please reply in your own words.

Q3 Presidential Job Approval (Donald Trump)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
[Flip Order 1234 / 4321]

1. Strongly approve

2. Somewhat approve

3. Somewhat disapprove

4. Strongly disapprove

5. Not sure

Q4 Generic Ballot 

If the 2026 election for US Congress were held today, would you support the [Rotate] Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate on the ballot? [Rotate 1-2]

1. The Democratic Candidate 

2. The Republican Candidates

3. Not sure 

[Randomize order of Q5 and Q6]

Q5: BLS Commissioner   

President Donald Trump recently fired the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after recent employment survey estimates from the Bureau showed fewer jobs than anticipated and estimates for previous months were revised downward.

Thinking of this firing specifically, do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s actions?

[Flip 1234 / 4321, keep same order as overall approval]

1. Strongly approve

2. Somewhat approve

3. Somewhat disapprove

4. Strongly disapprove

5. Not sure

6. Refused [VOL on Live SMS]

Q6: Trust Federal Statistics

In general, how trustworthy do you think economic statistics and other data coming from the Federal Government will be over the next year? 

[Flip 1234 / 4321]

1)  Very trustworthy

2)  Somewhat trustworthy

3)  Not very trustworthy

4)  Not at all trustworthy

5)  Not sure

Q7 Gender
The next set of questions are for statistical purposes only.

What is your gender?

1. Man

2. Woman

3. Non-binary

4. Prefer to self-describe

5. Prefer not to say

Q8 YOB
In what year were you born? Please respond with a four-digit year.

Q9 Age Bucket [Live Text only]
I know not everyone is comfortable providing their birth year, but could you tell us in which of the following ranges it falls?

1. 1997 or later

2. 1981 - 1996

3. 1965 - 1980

4. 1946 - 1964

5. 1945 or earlier

Q10 Race
Which of the following best describes your race and ethnic background?

1. African-American or Black

2. Asian-American, South-Asian, or Pacific Islander

3. Hispanic or Latino

4. Native American

5. White or Caucasian

6. More than one of the above

7. Other (please specify)

Q11 Education Level
What is the last year of education or degree you’ve finished?

1. 1st through 11th grade

2. High School degree or GED

3. Technical or vocational school

4. Some college but no degree

5. Associate’s (2 year) degree

6. Bachelor’s (4 year) degree

7. Graduate or professional degree

Q12 [Embargoed]

Q13 Vote Choice 2024

In the 2024 election for US President, for whom did you vote?

1. Democrat Kamala Harris

2. Republican Donald Trump

3. Libertarian Chase Oliver

4. Green Party candidate Jill Stein

5. Some other candidate (please specify)

6. Did not vote for President

7. Was not eligible to vote for President 

Q14 Party ID
And today, when it comes to politics, do you think of yourself as more of a …

[Rotate 1-2]

1. Democrat ⇒ Q15a

2. Republican ⇒ Q15b

3. Independent ⇒ Q15c

4. Something else

5. Unsure 

Q15a Strength - Democrat
Would you call yourself a strong Democrat  or a not very strong Democrat?

1. Strong Democrat

2. Not very strong Democrat 

Q15b Strength - Republican
Would you call yourself a strong Republican  or a not very strong Republican?

1. Strong Republican

2. Not very strong Republican 

Q15c Party ID Lean
Do you generally think of yourself as closer to …

1. The Democratic Party

2. The Republican Party

3. Neither

4. Unsure

Q16 Political Attention

How often do you pay attention to what's going on in government and politics? All the time, most of the time, about half the time, once in a while, or never
1. All the time
2. Most of the time
3. About half the time
4. Once in a while
5. Never

Q17 Political Talk

In the past 12 months, how often did you discuss political, societal, or local issues with friends or family?

1. Basically every day
2. A few times a week
3. A few times a month
4. Once a month
5. Less than once a month
6. Not at all

Q18 Political Posting 

During the past 12 months, have you posted a message or comment online about a political issue or campaign, or have you not done this in the past 12 months?
1. Have posted a message online about a political issue in past 12 months
2. Have not done this in the past 12 months
3. Unsure

Q19 Importance of Politics to Identity
How important is politics to your personal identity?

1.  Extremely important

2.  Very important

3.  Somewhat important

4.  Not too important

5.  Not at all important

6.  Not sure

Q20: Other Polls

Sometimes, people answer multiple polls from different survey organizations. Besides this poll, how many polls have you answered in the last month?  Please reply with a specific number, and if you cannot recall exactly, please just give your best guess.   [Free response, limited to integer in web survey]

Q21: [Embargoed]

Q22: [Embargoed] 

Q23: Income

Finally, last year, that is in 2024, what was your total family income from all sources, before taxes?

1. Less than $30,000

2. $30,000 to less than $40,000

3. $40,000 to less than $50,000

4. $50,000 to less than $60,000

5. $60,000 to less than $70,000

6. $70,000 to less than $80,000

7. $80,000 to less than $90,000

8. $90,000 to less than $100,000

9. $100,000 or more

10. Prefer not to answer